IMPROVING STATE BUDGET EXPENDITURE PLANNING IN UZBEKISTAN: PLAN–OUTTURN DEVIATIONS AND THE CASE FOR A MEDIUM-TERM EXPENDITURE CEILING

Abstract

The article examines how credible state budget expenditure planning is in the Republic of Uzbekistan by comparing the approved and executed parameters of the consolidated budget in 2022–2025. Using official data of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the annual budget laws and a comparative institutional analysis, the study shows that actual consolidated expenditure exceeded the approved level in every year, by 1.4 to 14.9 per cent, with a mean absolute deviation of 9.9 per cent. Over the four years unplanned spending (145.7 trillion UZS) was larger than unplanned revenue (124.6 trillion UZS), so revenue windfalls were largely absorbed by in-year spending rather than saved.