Abstract
The article develops a forecast for the development of the services sector in Samarkand region to 2030. The forecast is based on official statistical data for 2010-2025 and comprises four scenarios: inertial (15.0% per year), baseline (18.5%), target (22.0%) and optimistic (26.0%). The scenarios are linked to the identified territorial reserve: services per capita in the region amount to 63.7% of the national average. Under the target scenario, the per-capita indicator reaches the 2025 national average by 2030. Sensitivity analysis identifies employment and skill levels in the sector as the strongest constraint. Three additional target indicators are proposed for regional programmes.
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