PROSPECTS FOR IMPROVING HUMAN CAPITAL AND LABOUR RELATIONS IN THE SMALL BUSINESS SECTOR

Abstract

The paper applies scenario analysis to assess the prospects for improving human capital and labour relations in the small business sector of Uzbekistan up to 2030. Three scenarios inertial, moderate and accelerated are constructed, differentiated by the extent to which the organisational and economic mechanism of human capital development is implemented, and their assumptions and institutional conditions are substantiated. Forecast trajectories are calculated for the share of informal employment, the share of small and medium business in gross domestic product, the share of labour income and value added per employee. The calculations show that under the inertial scenario the officially established targets for 2030 are not attained, and that the decisive variable is the breadth of investment in employee training.